Winning Sports Picks

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 5/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday was with the Dallas Mavericks plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas (54-34) has won four of their last five games after their 114-101 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as an 8-point favorite on Friday. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road. Oklahoma City (61-25) has won nine games in a row after their 97-89 victory as a 4.5-point favorite against New Orleans to finish their four-game sweep last Monday. The Thunder have not allowed more than 92 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in four or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with three or more days of rest. Take Dallas plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer remains on a 37 of 60 (62%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after a winless Monday with his two NBA plays! Frank BOUNCES BACK TONIGHT — he still maintains a long-running 89 of 146 (61%) NBA featured play run — and now he furthers his 48 of 68 (71%) NBA TOTALS TEAR with featured plays with the Dallas-Oklahoma City O/U winner on TNT at 9:40 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Tuesday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (557) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (558) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-34) has won four of their last five games after their 114-101 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as an 8-point favorite on Friday to end that series in six games. Oklahoma City (61-25) has won nine games in a row after their 97-89 victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite last Monday to complete that four-game sweep. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas found their offensive groove in the second half of their series with the Clippers. Their 48.2% field goal percentage in Game Six on Friday was the worst shooting mark in their last three games — they have scored 116.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. Luka Doncic has been very productive when playing on the road — and he has been particularly effective when playing with at least three days of rest. In those ten games this season, he is scoring 35.6 PPG. The Mavericks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City held the Pelicans to just 37.6% shooting to close out that series in Game Four which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. They also made only 42.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. The Thunder have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. And while they have held their last two opponents to 38.5% or worse shooting, they have then played 4 straight Overs after not allowing their last two opponents to make at least 39.0% of their shots. Both those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They host the first two games of this series where they have played 16 of their last 27 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder won three of the four games between these two teams in the regular season after a 135-86 victory on the final day of the regular season on April 14th. The Mavericks have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when on the road and playing with revenge — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (557) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 121-117 loss on the road to the Knicks as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (55-34) has won 10 of their last 12 games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers allowed the Knicks to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games — but it was also the third time in their last four games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.1% of their shots from the field. Indiana does not have a defensive answer to Jalen Brunson who scored 43 points and got to the free-throw line 14 times on Monday. The Pacers have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Indiana has played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. This is just the fifth time all season that they are playing in a game with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have played 3 of those previous 4 games Over the Total. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 19 of their 27 games this season Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 25 of their last 41 games Over the Total following a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson indefinitely after he suffered a stress fracture in his left ankle on Monday — and that means more playing time for Precious Achiwa. Achiwa means higher scores at the margins since he is not as good a defensive player as Robinson — but he does offer more on the perimeter. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have played 56 of their last 92 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Indiana-New York TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid has won eight of their last ten matches after a 3-0 victory at home against Cadiz in La Liga action on May 4th. Bayern Munich is winless in their last two matches after a 3-1 loss at Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday. These two settled for a 2-2 draw in Munich in their first-leg match last Tuesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich blew the opportunity to take a one-goal lead into this second match by fouling Vinicius Junior inside the box which gave him the chance to score his second goal of the match with a penalty kick at the 83rd minute. The Bavarians have been more effective at home where they have lost only twice in the Bundesliga — but they have five losses on the road in domestic play. In the Champions League, Bayern Munich lost at Lazio by a 1-0 score in the Round of 16 — and they lost at Manchester City by a 3-0 score in the Group Stage. They have won only twice in their last nine matches on the road across all competitions with losses during that span — and they do not have a clean sheet on the road in 2024. They have surrendered two or more goals in eight of their last ten matches on the road. Domestically, it has been a disappointing season with Bayer Leverkusen already taking the title — the Bavarians are 15 points behind in second place. Manage Thomas Tuchel announced in February that he will not return to the club. Bayern Munich has demonstrated that is foolish to discount proud teams with talent in European competition — they outclassed Arsenal in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. But something is lacking. This club is not as elite in the buildup as past teams. They struggle in transition defense. Injuries have decimated their backline. They are without Raphael Guerreiro and Dayot Upamecano — and Eric Dier along with Mattias de Ligt are questionable with knocks. Kim Min-Jae is a liability at center back and his two mistakes last week led directly to Los Blancos’ two goals. The Bavarians have struggled against top-tier talent. They were outclassed by a 3-0 score in their showdown against Bayer Leverkusen in February. They lost 2-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund (who advanced to the finals of this tournament yesterday). And they lost to a Man City squad that Real Madrid outlasted in the Quarterfinals of this event last month. Los Blancos dealt with injuries in the first half of the season — and they were giving up 1.12 expected goals (xGA) in La Liga going into 2024. But since January 1st, Real Madrid is holding their domestic opponents to just 0.83 xGA. They have clinched another La Liga title. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is a master in adapting his tactics to his opponent — and he has found the identity of this squad which plays at its best in a passive mid-block defensive approach that attacks in transition. Real Madrid is very tough to beat at home at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu where they have won 15 of their 17 domestic matches at home with no losses. Since January 1st, they have won eight of their nine home matches in La Liga while generating 2.74 expected goals (xG) and surrendering just 0.82 xGA. In their last 12 matches at home in the Champions League, they are unbeaten with nine victories. They get David Alaba back for this match after he was suspended for last week’s contest. 

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich has not registered a clean sheet in their last 16 matches against Real Madrid. They are winless in their nine previous contests against teams managed by Ancelotti with nine losses and zero clean sheets. The legendary Ancelotti looks to take his sixth team to the Champions League final — and Los Blancos are striving to win their 15th European title. Real Madrid lost in the final to Man City last year — they will be confident this afternoon that they are destined to return. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Real Madrid (224214) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.